StagflationisBack

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Jeffrey D.Sachs

Fortune, June 7, 2008

Conventional oil supplies will re-main tight in the years ahead. New dis-coveries will not suffice. World crude-oilproduction nearly tripled in 1960-73(from 21 million barrels a day to 56 mil-lion), but has grown a mere 30% sincethen, to around 73 million barrels per dayin 2006. In fact, Persian Gulf crude-oilproduction stopped growing entirely after1974, peaking at around 21 million bar-rels per day. Discoveries and productionincreases outside the Middle East roseonly modestly and now in many cases arein decline in such fields as Britain'sNorth Sea and Alaska's North Slope.


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